1
Research Article
Vol. 35, Issue 1
Forecasting Monthly Inflation Rate in Nigeria Using Causal and Invertible Autoregressive Moving Average Models
This paper evaluates causal and invertible ARMA models for forecasting Nigeria’s inflation rate. After testing stationarity and fitting candidates, the ARMA(1, 4) model emerged as optimal. It satisfies causality, invertibility, and outperforms alternatives across loss functions.
